According to IHS Markit’s latest 2022 global photovoltaic (PV) demand forecast, global solar installations will continue to experience double-digit growth rates over the next decade. Global new solar PV installations will reach 142 GW in 2022, up 14% from the previous year.
The expected 142 GW is seven times the full capacity installed at the start of the previous decade. In terms of geographic coverage, the growth is also very impressive. In 2012, seven countries had more than 1 GW of installed capacity, most of them confined to Europe. IHS Markit expects that by the end of 2022, more than 43 countries will meet this standard.
Another double-digit growth in global demand in 2022 is testament to the continued and exponential growth in solar PV installations over the past decade. If the 2010s were a decade of technological innovation, dramatic cost reductions, massive subsidies and a few market dominances, 2020 will be the emerging era of unsubsidized solar, with global solar installation demand diversifying and expanding, new corporate entrants and A growing decade.”
Large markets like China will continue to account for a large share of new installations for the foreseeable future. However, the over-reliance on the Chinese market for global solar installation growth will continue to diminish in the coming years as capacity is added elsewhere. Installations in the leading global market (outside of China) grew by 53% in 2020 and are expected to continue double-digit growth through 2022. Overall, the overall market share of the top ten solar markets is expected to decline to 73%.
China will continue to maintain its leading position as the overall leader in solar installations. But this decade will see new markets emerge in Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. However, key markets will continue to be critical to the growth of the solar industry, especially in terms of technological innovation, policy development and new business models.
Regional highlights from the 2022 global PV demand forecast:
China: Solar demand in 2022 will be lower than the historical installation peak of 50 GW in 2017. Demand in the Chinese market is in a transitional phase as the market moves towards unsubsidized solar and competes with other methods of generating electricity.
United States: Installations are expected to grow by 20% in 2022, cementing the United States as the second largest market in the world. California, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and New York will be the main drivers of U.S. demand growth over the next five years.
Europe: Growth is expected to continue in 2022, adding more than 24 GW, a 5% increase over 2021. Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Ukraine will be the main sources of demand, accounting for 63% of total EU installations in the coming year.
India: After a lackluster 2021 due to policy uncertainty and the impact of import tariffs on solar cells and modules, installed capacity is expected to grow again and surpass 14 GW in 2022.
Post time: Mar-26-2022