Solar energy conjures up images of rooftop panels. The depiction is especially true in Africa, where about 600 million people are without access to electricity — power to keep the lights on and power to keep the COVID-19 vaccine frozen.
Africa’s economy has experienced solid growth at an average of 3.7% throughout the continent. That expansion can be fueled even more with solar-based electrons and the absence of CO2 emissions. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), as many as 30 countries in Africa have electricity outages because supply lags demand.
Think about this predicament for a moment. Electricity is the lifeblood of any economy. Gross Domestic Product per capita is generally three to five times greater in North Africa where less than 2% of the population is without reliable power, IRENA says. In sub-Saharan Africa, the problem is far more acute and will require billions in new investment.
By 2050, Africa is expected to grow from 1.1 billion people today to 2 billion, with a total economic output of $15 trillion — money that will now, in part, be targeted to the transport and energy venues.
Economic growth, changing lifestyles, and the need for reliable modern energy access are expected to require energy supplies to be at least doubled by 2030. For electricity, it might even have to triple. Africa is richly endowed with renewable energy sources, and the time is right for sound planning to ensure the right energy mix.
Brighter Lights Ahead
The good news is that, excluding South Africa, about 1,200 megawatts of off-grid solar power is expected to come online this year in sub-Saharan Africa. Regional power markets will develop, allowing countries to buy electrons from those places with surpluses. However, a lack of private investment in transmission infrastructure and in small generation fleets will hinder that growth.
In total, more than 700,000 solar systems have been installed in the region, says the World Bank. Renewable energy, generally, can supply 22% of the African continent’s electricity by 2030. That is up from 5% in 2013. The ultimate goal is to hit 50%: hydropower and wind energy could reach 100,000 megawatts each while solar power could hit 90,000 megawatts. To get there, though, an investment of $70 billion a year is necessary. That’s $45 billion annual for generation capacity and $25 billion a year for transmission.
Globally, energy-as-a-service is expected to reach $173 billion by 2027. The key driver is the precipitous fall in solar panel prices, about 80% of what they were a decade ago. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to embrace this business plan — one that sub-Saharan Africa could also adopt.
While reliability and affordability are paramount, our industry may face regulatory challenges as governments continue to develop policy regimes for renewable energy development, currency risks can also be an issue.
Energy access provides hope for a stable economic life as well as a more vibrant existence and one free from COVID-19. An expansion of off-grid solar energy in Africa could help ensure this outcome. And a burgeoning continent is good for everyone and especially those energy ventures that want the region to shine.
Post time: Aug-02-2021